The results may come as a surprise to some
Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2025 3:13 am
I assessed how well a previous test can predict Year 8 English results by looking at correlations. If a prior test could perfectly predict Year 8 English results, then the correlation would be 1.0; if there was no association then the correlation would be 0. In practice, the correlation will always be somewhere between 0 and 1, and the closer to 1 then the better the predictive power.
Figure 1 presents the correlation cambodia rcs data between each of these four “predictor” tests and the end-of-Year 8 English test of interest.
It is actually pupils’ performance in MATHS at the end of Year 7 that has the strongest correlation with Year 8 English scores (correlation 0.78).
In fact, even maths scores taken at the end of Year 6 (Key Stage 2 SATs) are more strongly associated with Year 8 English test scores than English tests taken at the end of Year 7 (correlations of 0.68 versus 0.55).
A potential explanation is that mathematics test scores typically contain less measurement error than English tests (i.e. they are less susceptible to random error arising from the judgement of the marker). This then makes them particularly useful in predicting future outcomes, leading to this somewhat counterintuitive finding.
Are Key Stage 2 SATs king?
While the Key Stage 2 SATs often get a bit of a bashing, they are a useful source of information freely available to secondary schools.
An interesting question, then, is how much additional predictive value do further test measures offer?
Table 1 provides some evidence on this matter. The top four rows illustrate how well one can predict end-of-Year 8 English scores from a single test score (end of Year 7 English or maths scores, and Key Stage 2 English and maths scores). The bottom three rows then demonstrate how much the predictions made off the basis of Key Stage 2 maths scores are “improved” by adding in information from the three other tests.
Figure 1 presents the correlation cambodia rcs data between each of these four “predictor” tests and the end-of-Year 8 English test of interest.
It is actually pupils’ performance in MATHS at the end of Year 7 that has the strongest correlation with Year 8 English scores (correlation 0.78).
In fact, even maths scores taken at the end of Year 6 (Key Stage 2 SATs) are more strongly associated with Year 8 English test scores than English tests taken at the end of Year 7 (correlations of 0.68 versus 0.55).
A potential explanation is that mathematics test scores typically contain less measurement error than English tests (i.e. they are less susceptible to random error arising from the judgement of the marker). This then makes them particularly useful in predicting future outcomes, leading to this somewhat counterintuitive finding.
Are Key Stage 2 SATs king?
While the Key Stage 2 SATs often get a bit of a bashing, they are a useful source of information freely available to secondary schools.
An interesting question, then, is how much additional predictive value do further test measures offer?
Table 1 provides some evidence on this matter. The top four rows illustrate how well one can predict end-of-Year 8 English scores from a single test score (end of Year 7 English or maths scores, and Key Stage 2 English and maths scores). The bottom three rows then demonstrate how much the predictions made off the basis of Key Stage 2 maths scores are “improved” by adding in information from the three other tests.